Climate change
Perhaps the biggest single issue
Climate change is perhaps the biggest single issue facing Europe and the rest of the world at the start of the 21st century. Although we cannot be sure what climatic conditions we will have to face in coming years, we are already experiencing the effects and there will be more significant changes to weather patterns as average global temperatures rise. For many countries in Europe, summers will become hotter and drier, while winter rainfall is likely to rise for many. Warmer, wetter weather in the north will encourage the growth of fungus pests and disease. Hotter, drier conditions in the south will promote insect infestations accompanied by potential for drought. Already, every 10 months a new agricultural pest enters Europe from the south, moving north as conditions change.
Alarming projections
If the projected 2°C rise in average temperatures comes to pass, then:
- Southern Europe may become too hot and arid to grow its present crops.
- Northern Europe will be the best place to grow typically Mediterranean crops.
- Scandinavia and Scotland may be prime wine producing areas.
- Much of Siberia will be a major cereal-growing area.
- Southern Africa could lose up to 30% of its main staple crop – maize – by 2030
- "For even small temperature increases of 1-2 degrees, yields for rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020" (IPCC AR4).
We need to be prepared, we need to grow more food
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts wide ranging effects of global warming, including loss of fertile coastal lands caused by rising sea levels, more unpredictable farming conditions in tropical areas, changes in distribution and quantities of fish and sea foods, and an increase in the incidence of pests and diseases as threats to agriculture production.
Northern Europe may begin to experience a more Mediterranean climate while the south may become too hot and arid for many of the current crops. Farmers will have to grow different crops and will face pressure from different pests. On average, due to a warming climate, one new pest is appearing in Spain from north Africa every 10 months. To avoid potentially large losses from unfamiliar pests, farmers will need access to crop protection products which may not currently be licensed in their particular countries. Future changes in temperature and precipitation will also undoubtedly make crops even more vulnerable, affecting the volume and price
Professor Tim Lang of City University London and a senior food adviser to the UK government recently warned, "We cannot sit idly by and watch crop production slide ever downwards. If in five or ten years' time there was a water crisis in Southern Europe or Africa – and that is a real possibility – we need to be ready and that means we need to grow more in the north." But overall in Europe, agricultural policies are being set in the opposite direction, banning technologies and in some cases promoting archaic, unproductive practices without an adequate scientific basis.
Pesticides - among other technologically advanced farming techniques - increase productivity, secure yields, reduce crop losses and, therefore, help provide a sufficient and sustainable supply of food. The most climate friendly form of agriculture is necessarily the form which makes the most of a limited land resource and respects the environment. The crop protection industry is continuously renewing and adjusting its products in response to changing pest and disease environments, at the same time making them safe and environmentally sound. We will have to adjust more often and faster due to climate change. Increasing the farmer’s pest management options will be of vital importance not only to mitigate the effects but to secure Europe’s food supply for generations to come. Farmers need sustainable solutions to maximize existing resources. This will require both greater investment on the part of industry and forward looking and innovative agriculture policies.
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The other important issue related to Climate Change is reducing its root cause: greenhouse gases. At the same time as global food production must increase and adapt to climate change to keep up with demand, agriculture’s greenhouse footprint must be reduced. Agriculture contributes to global warming mainly through greenhouse gas emissions from farming activities and the felling of forests for agricultural land. Reducing significant losses due to pests or disease means that we reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emitted per kilo of food produced, so proper protection of crops plays an important role in minimising emissions associated with food production.
José Manuel Barroso, European Commission President, has announced that every Community policy will need to be assessed and if necessary adapted to global warming. The need to reduce green house gas emissions has never been so pressing.
Forests for Food
a bad deal Many scenarios can be projected. For instance, as northern Europe becomes more suited to growing crops currently grown in the Mediterranean region, there may be pressure to increase the area of arable land by felling forests. However, felling large areas of woodland releases huge quantities of greenhouse gases and so is to be avoided if at all possible. Hence the productivity factor comes into play again, producing what we need on the existing agricultural land base.
Deforestation, soil degradation and scarce resources are signs that we need an imperative shift. More than ever, we ought to make the most out of existing lands, increase productivity per hectare and keep our agriculture prolific. This is particularly challenging because land and resources are unevenly distributed between regions and countries and also not all available land has the same potential for cultivation.
Sustainably increasing productivity is the answer
Only through scientific agricultural practices will we meet the challenge. Less efficient forms of farming will require much more land and much more energy-intensive cultivation methods to produce an equivalent supply of food. Researchers at Cranfield University found organic farming needed anywhere between 65 and 200% more land than non-organic. Organic agriculture also entails more ploughing or tilling, which can damage soil structure more than safely employed crop protection products.
Protecting local food grown in Europe is an essential accompaniment to global efforts decreasing emissions. Increased localised food production capacity reduces the amount of produce we need to import, which minimises the carbon dioxide emitted during transport.
Fighting pests and disease is part of the solution to protecting our food supply, making the best use of limited agricultural land and minimising agriculture’s carbon footprint.
Green House Gas Facts
Agriculture (including deforestation, fertiliser use etc) accounts for 25% of all GHG emissions. In the EU, farming accounts for:
- 14% of CO2 emissions.
- 48% of methane emissions.
- 52% of nitrous oxide emissions.
Terrestrial vegetation and soils absorb approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions from human activities, and changes in agriculture and forestry practices could increase yields. The EU DG Environment calculates that 20% of the surface of agricultural land in the EU could be used as a sink. There is the potential to achieve up to 25% of the reductions in CO2 that are estimated to be required to avoid large increases in temperature (NFU climate change working group report: Agriculture and climate change, 2005).
